Resolution & Settlement
How markets resolve and payouts are distributed
How Markets Resolve
Every prediction market has a defined question, a set of resolution criteria, and a resolution source. When the real-world outcome is determined, the market resolves -- meaning it is officially settled as either YES or NO.
Resolution is handled by the underlying exchange (Polymarket or Kalshi), not by Vezta directly. Each exchange has its own resolution process:
- Polymarket uses decentralized oracle systems (including UMA's optimistic oracle) where designated resolvers verify real-world outcomes. Resolution sources typically include major news agencies such as the Associated Press, Reuters, and official government publications.
- Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange where resolution is determined by Kalshi's own resolution team based on the criteria published in each market's rules.
Binary Outcomes
Most prediction markets on Vezta are binary -- they resolve to one of two outcomes:
- YES wins -- the event described in the market question occurred
- NO wins -- the event did not occur
When the outcome is determined:
| Outcome | YES shares pay | NO shares pay |
|---|---|---|
| Event happened (YES wins) | $1.00 per share | $0.00 per share |
| Event did not happen (NO wins) | $0.00 per share | $1.00 per share |
This binary payout structure is what makes prediction market pricing intuitive: the price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome.
Settlement Process
Event occurs
The real-world event reaches its conclusion (election results certified, economic data released, game played, etc.).
Resolution triggered
The exchange's resolution mechanism verifies the outcome against the market's published criteria.
Market resolves
The market is officially marked as resolved. Trading stops and the final outcome (YES or NO) is recorded.
Payouts distributed
Winning shares are credited at $1.00 each. Losing shares pay $0.00. Funds are deposited into your trading account.
Timeframes
The time between an event's conclusion and full settlement varies:
- Fast resolution -- some markets resolve within minutes of the event (e.g., sports outcomes, binary data releases)
- Standard resolution -- most markets resolve within hours to a few days after the event
- Delayed resolution -- complex events may take longer if the outcome is disputed or official results are delayed
Each market page displays the expected resolution date and the resolution source so you know when and how the market will settle.
Viewing Resolved Positions
Resolved positions appear in your Portfolio under the Resolved tab. Each entry shows:
- The market name and question
- Your side (YES or NO)
- Number of shares held
- Your entry price
- The resolution outcome
- Your payout amount
- Realized PnL for that position
Resolved positions move from Active Positions to the Resolved tab automatically. Your realized PnL is updated to reflect the final settlement, and the value is added to your total realized PnL in the portfolio overview.
Resolution Criteria
Every market page includes a Resolution Info section at the bottom that describes:
- Resolution source -- which authorities or data feeds determine the outcome
- Resolution date -- when the market is expected to resolve
- Market rules -- the full description of what constitutes a YES or NO outcome
- Contract details -- the underlying exchange and contract identifiers
Always review the resolution criteria before trading. Markets may have specific rules about edge cases, timing cutoffs, or what counts as a valid outcome.