Trading Basics

What Are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcome of real-world events. Instead of buying stocks or crypto, you buy shares that pay out based on whether something happens. Will a candidate win an election? Will Bitcoin hit $100K by December? Will it rain in New York tomorrow?

Each market poses a question with a binary outcome: YES or NO. You profit by buying shares on the correct side before the market resolves.

How YES/NO Shares Work

Every prediction market has two sides:

• YES shares -- you believe the event will happen
• NO shares -- you believe the event will not happen

Share prices range from $0.01 to $0.99. The price reflects the market's implied probability of the event occurring. A YES share priced at $0.65 means the market collectively estimates a 65% chance the event happens.

How You Profit

When a market resolves, winning shares pay out $1.00 and losing shares pay $0.00.

Here is a practical example:

1. You believe a candidate will win an election
2. The market prices YES shares at $0.40 (40% implied probability)
3. You buy 100 YES shares for $40.00
4. The candidate wins -- the market resolves YES
5. Your 100 shares are now worth $100.00
6. Your profit: $60.00 (150% return)

If the candidate had lost, your shares would be worth $0.00 and you would lose your $40.00.

You can also profit by selling shares before resolution. If the price of your YES shares rises from $0.40 to $0.70 because sentiment shifts, you can sell early for a profit without waiting for the outcome.

How Vezta Aggregates Markets

Vezta pulls markets from two prediction market platforms into a single interface:

• Polymarket -- operates on the Polygon blockchain with a central limit order book (CLOB). Crypto-native, deepest liquidity on political and crypto markets. Vezta custodies user funds in a per-user Gnosis Safe (1-of-1) on Polygon, deployed gaslessly via the Builder Relayer.
• Kalshi (via DFlow) -- a CFTC-regulated US exchange whose markets DFlow tokenizes as SPL Token-2022 outcome tokens on Solana. You sign Solana transactions directly from your own wallet -- non-custodial. Strong coverage on weather, economics, sports, and finance.

When you trade on Vezta, the platform routes your order to the right venue based on which exchange backs the market. Some events have markets on both platforms, giving you the option to trade where pricing and liquidity are most favorable.

Source Badges

Each market displays a source badge (Polymarket or Kalshi) so you always know which exchange backs it. The badge also tells you which custody model applies and whether DFlow Proof KYC is required to buy.

Key Concepts

Implied Probability

A share's price directly represents the crowd's probability estimate. If YES is trading at $0.72, the market implies a 72% chance the event occurs.

Liquidity

Liquidity refers to how easily you can buy or sell shares without moving the price. Markets with higher volume and deeper order books have better liquidity, meaning tighter spreads and less price impact on your trades.

Settlement Currency

You only ever interact with USDC -- no native gas to worry about. Polymarket trades are gasless via the Builder Relayer; DFlow swaps pay tiny Solana transaction fees automatically from the swap.

Resolution

Every market has a defined resolution source and criteria. When the outcome is determined (for example, an election result is certified), the market resolves and payouts are distributed automatically. Polymarket payouts land in your Gnosis Safe; Kalshi/DFlow redemptions land in your own Solana wallet. See Resolution & Settlement for details.