Trading Basics

What Are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcome of real-world events. Instead of buying stocks or crypto, you buy shares that pay out based on whether something happens. Will a candidate win an election? Will Bitcoin hit $100K by December? Will it rain in New York tomorrow?

Each market poses a question with a binary outcome: YES or NO. You profit by buying shares on the correct side before the market resolves.

How YES/NO Shares Work

Every prediction market has two sides:

• YES shares -- you believe the event will happen
• NO shares -- you believe the event will not happen

Share prices range from $0.01 to $0.99. The price reflects the market's implied probability of the event occurring. A YES share priced at $0.65 means the market collectively estimates a 65% chance the event happens.

How You Profit

When a market resolves, winning shares pay out $1.00 and losing shares pay $0.00.

Here is a practical example:

1. You believe a candidate will win an election
2. The market prices YES shares at $0.40 (40% implied probability)
3. You buy 100 YES shares for $40.00
4. The candidate wins -- the market resolves YES
5. Your 100 shares are now worth $100.00
6. Your profit: $60.00 (150% return)

If the candidate had lost, your shares would be worth $0.00 and you would lose your $40.00.

You can also profit by selling shares before resolution. If the price of your YES shares rises from $0.40 to $0.70 because sentiment shifts, you can sell early for a profit without waiting for the outcome.

How Vezta Aggregates Markets

Vezta pulls markets from two major prediction market platforms into a single interface:

• Polymarket -- operates on the Polygon blockchain with a central limit order book (CLOB). Crypto-native, high liquidity on major events.
• Kalshi -- a CFTC-regulated US exchange with fiat settlement. Broad market coverage including weather, economics, and politics.

When you trade on Vezta, the platform's smart router automatically finds the best available price across both exchanges and routes your order accordingly. You see a unified view of all markets regardless of which underlying exchange they come from.

Source Badges

Each market displays a source badge (Polymarket or Kalshi) so you always know which exchange backs it. Some events may have markets on both platforms, giving you the option to trade where liquidity and pricing are most favorable.

Key Concepts

Implied Probability

A share's price directly represents the crowd's probability estimate. If YES is trading at $0.72, the market implies a 72% chance the event occurs. This makes prediction markets one of the most efficient tools for real-time forecasting.

Liquidity

Liquidity refers to how easily you can buy or sell shares without moving the price. Markets with higher volume and deeper order books have better liquidity, meaning tighter spreads and less price impact on your trades.

Resolution

Every market has a defined resolution source and criteria. When the outcome is determined (for example, an election result is certified), the market resolves and payouts are distributed automatically. See Resolution & Settlement for details.