Signals (Insider + AI)
Insider Signals (smart-money detection) and AI Predictions
Vezta surfaces two complementary kinds of trading signals: Insider Signals detect smart-money wallets on Polymarket, and AI Predictions are LLM-backed model forecasts on individual markets. Both feed into the dedicated /ai-signals page and contextually appear on market detail pages.
Insider Signals
The Insider Signals pipeline is Vezta's flagship intelligence feature. It detects high-conviction whale trades on Polymarket through aggressive bot/copy-trader filtering and a multi-metric scoring model, then fans out tier-graded alerts to Telegram, Expo push (mobile, when shipped), and the in-app monitor feed.
How a trade becomes an alert
Stage 1 -- 11-layer filter
Every fresh trade is run through 11 filter layers in three tiers. Tier-1 hits short-circuit (immediate reject); tier-2 accumulates (rejects at 2+ hits); tier-3 are soft signals fed into the scorer.
Layers cover: blacklist (L1), two-sided trading (L2), cancel-rate (L3), flatness (L4/L4b), timing patterns (L5a/b), copy-trade detection (L7), reaction patterns (L9), grid strategies (L10), cluster detection (L11).
Stage 2 -- 10-metric scorer
Surviving wallets are scored across 10 metrics:
- NET -- net position size
- CR -- conviction ratio
- MDR -- market dominance
- AAB -- age-adjusted boldness
- TSJR -- trade-size jump
- DCS -- directional conviction (cross-market clustering)
- RA -- rapid accumulation
- SAS -- slow accumulation
- PHR -- position holding ratio
- HE -- historical edge
Score maps to a tier:
| Score | Tier | Emoji |
|---|---|---|
| ≥15 | HIGH_CONVICTION_INSIDER | 🔴 |
| 11-14 | STRONG_SIGNAL | 🟠 |
| 7-10 | WATCH | 🟡 |
| 4-6 | LOW_PRIORITY | 🟢 |
| <4 | dropped | -- |
Stage 3 -- Dispatch
- Dedup: wallet × market × 24h dedup via Redis. Higher-score duplicates bump the existing alert; same/lower drops.
- Daily caps: 50 global + 10 🔴 (vibrant mode).
- Coordinated detection: 3+ distinct EOAs same market+side within 1h get a triple-emoji
🔴🔴🔴 COORDINATEDprefix. - Fanout: all 4 tiers post to Telegram (
@vezta_signals); only 🔴 triggers push notifications; WS emits on every alert viamonitor:signalschannel with eventinsider-alert.
Telegram channels
| Channel | Audience | Latency |
|---|---|---|
@vezta_signals | Public | Same as everyone else |
@vezta_signals_beta | Beta members | Reserved for pre-launch testing |
| Internal | Vezta team | Reserved for ops review |
The signal-dispatch bot is @vezta_signal_bot on production (@dev_vezta_signal_bot on staging).
What an alert looks like
Each Telegram alert includes:
- Top line:
🔴 INSIDER 78 | $11.3M YES · Trump 2024 · Fredi9999 (win 86%) - Threaded reply with per-metric breakdown
- 3-row inline keyboard: Chart / Trade on Vezta + competitor referrals
- Market image (when available) for richer cards
Funding trace
Every insider wallet is also classified by funding source (cached 30 days in WalletLabel):
PRIVACY_MIXERNO_KYC_SWAPCEXFIAT_ONRAMPMM_SUBWALLETSYBIL_CLUSTER
This helps you assess how anonymous the actor is.
AI Predictions
A separate ML pipeline produces directional predictions per market. Each prediction includes:
| Field | Description |
|---|---|
| Market | The prediction market the signal applies to |
| Direction | Bullish (favoring YES) or Bearish (favoring NO) |
| Confidence | Model certainty score |
| Model | Which AI model generated the signal |
| Accuracy7d / Accuracy30d | The model's recent track record |
| Generated at | Timestamp of when the prediction was created |
Model Statistics
Each AI model maintains a public track record on the AI Signals page:
- Overall accuracy -- percentage of past predictions where the predicted direction was correct
- Accuracy by category -- performance broken down by market category
- Signal count -- total predictions made
- Recent performance -- accuracy over the last 7 and 30 days
When OPENROUTER_API_KEY is unset, the AI predictions module falls back to a heuristic-only model.
AI predictions and insider signals are informational tools to supplement your own analysis. They are not financial advice. Always do your own research.
Using Signals
On the AI Signals Page
The dedicated /ai-signals page shows recent insider alerts and AI predictions in a sortable, filterable list. You can filter by:
- Source (insider vs AI)
- Tier (🔴 / 🟠 / 🟡 / 🟢 for insider; high / medium / low confidence for AI)
- Market category
- Time period
On Market Detail Pages
When viewing a specific market, any active signals for that market appear in the analysis section -- including the most recent insider alerts on that market and the latest AI prediction.
Signal Freshness
Insider alerts arrive in real time as fresh trades are classified. AI predictions are regenerated on a schedule and clearly marked with a generatedAt timestamp. Stale predictions are flagged.